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Which Stats Matter? – Football Manager 2016 – Part 6

20.

It is FM perfection. Those 20 out of 20 ratings are golden. There are very few players who are loaded with these perfect attributes but the closer you can get to these markers the better.

When I am looking for a striker I will always start with 15 finishing, 15 composure and 15 pace. I will often add 15 heading, but I immediately know I am ruling out some very good forwards. Anticipation, decisions and off the ball are all important but the more attributes I put in, the less likely I am to actually get anyone. Sometimes filtering down to a half dozen players is less useful, it gives you no where to go.

Even though I am entering 15 for finishing this is probably too low for the top level. The filters will be adjusted up for finishing, certainly down for pace (but not too far down). Composure I will drop by one or two. I am not going to get 20 finishers, not unless I am a Champions League winner, have mega money or something unusual has happened at other clubs. Finishing is probably the most extreme of the attributes to chase the 20 as there are so few. Dribbling, flair, passing and others are all desirable for midfielders or attacking players. Twenty work rate and stamina would be great for full backs and midfielders. Then we have the defensive set of marking, positioning, tackling and heading. A little bit of anticipation would not go amiss.

With perfect players how can I lose?

When I have young players I look at their attributes in the same way. As they develop I hope and expect their numbers to get as close to that magic twenty as possible. If they aren’t heading in that direction quickly enough it could be curtains for those players.

This is how I have played the game for years. Yet I might be completely wrong.

I have become somewhat frustrated with my New England Saints project. The player development feels extraordinary slow. Players are inching forward in increments. This is despite selling off a number of older players and creating more positions for the young players, giving them more minutes and opportunities. My frustration is nothing to do with their performances. It is just their attributes.

So does it matter?

Results and awards suggest not.

Shield and Super Cup

These two games had little of note. In the Shield Arsenal were beaten on penalties following a 0-0 draw. In the Super Cup a much better performance put a 3-0 win on the board against Marseille.

Club World Championship

This competition proved slightly trickier than usual. Gremio are tough opponents with good players.

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Marcelo Grohe kept Saints down to one goal until the 89th minute when Vietto would grab the winner. Another first achieved for the club.

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The League Cup

Apart from in this competition. My nemesis strikes once again.

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This time City didn’t even wait for the final to take us out.

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In the first leg our finishing was simply not up to standard.

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In the second leg I was Agueroed. Agueroed like never before. Two of the goals were of utterly ridiculous quality, skinning a couple of defenders and smashing the ball right into the far top corner the other a perfect volley from a cross on the left.

The league cup will have to wait another year (I can now cut and paste this sentence ready for next season).

The FA Cup

Thankfully the FA Cup remains a dear and trusted friend. Though this year the matches took on a far more epic quality. The 5th round tie against Arsenal was fairly straight forward, their goal coming late on. From the quarter finals onwards, the games were rather remarkable.

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Against Liverpool the scoreline makes it look more interesting that it really was. Lallana equalising quickly sparked life into my team who struck twice with rapidity soon after. In the second half another quick double made it 5-1 before an 89th minute strike tightened the game up a little.

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In the midst of semi-final season I was relieved to be facing struggling Fulham. So I took the opportunity to rotate the squad. Hubris almost struck. Fulham went in ahead at half time. The second half pounding is evident in the overall game statistics, but Fulham just would not go away. Ultimately the result was secured and the rotation worked. Just.

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I am sure the nature of the FA Cup final itself caught the eye. Eight goals and extra time. Must have been a classic right? Classic is not even half way there.

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The statistical weight of the game shifted towards the Saints in extra time (though Martial did hit the woodwork), during normal time the game was far closer. The pace of Martial causing all sorts of problems as we attacked. If Fulham were hard to shake off Manchester United and Martial were glued to us. It felt poetic that following Martial’s goalscoring feats it would take Vietto one upping him to win the game.

The Champions League

The group stage was not quite as generous as last season but it could have been much worse. It was one of those strange years when the big names were sitting in pot two, lurking to frighten me. Thankfully it was Dortmund rather Real Madrid who came out of the fish bowl.

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Two areas of significance. The form of Vietto (who from the FA Cup and the Champions League group results you have probably worked out that he had rather good season) and that the rotated team generally performed better than the first choice team in this competition. We had guaranteed qualification following the back to back games with Celtic. The draw with Lyon secured top spot. Destroying Dortmund away with a rotated team was a massive bonus.

Drawing Zenit in the first knock out stage was another opportunity to rotate.

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Moving on. Nothing to see here.

Then it was nemesis time again.

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Another decent enough performance. Thankfully Aguero was injured. City well placed but home advantage was ours. The danger being that lack of an away goal.

The first significant action of the second leg was a City away goal. After 22 minutes of the quarter final City led by two goals with an away goal.

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I call City nemesis but we did beat them to win that first Champions League. Ox had injuries this season but he still showed that knack for scoring important goals.

On to Barcelona in the semi-finals.

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A statistically dominant performance against an attribute rich Barcelona.

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You would not take any of my players ahead of those Barcelona players. Perhaps Danilo in the holding position instead of Busquets and Vermaelen at left back are not ideal. Yet we were able to dominate, though the goals were not as forthcoming as they might have been.

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A little bit of backs to the wall at the end but Barcelona were safely negotiated.

To the San Siro and the final. Another European giant awaits. Juventus.

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A really tough encounter that went to penalties. Vietto’s brilliant season continued with another cup final goal in quick response to Dybala. Ox netted another important goal. Both teams continued to attack but Butland and Patricio kept the attackers out.

Shoot out time.

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Jay Rodriguez blinked first.

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Marchisio blinked immediately after. If he had scored it was over. Sudden death befell Bonucci as his penalty was straight at Butland.

Back to back Champions League wins for New England Saints.

Premier League

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Fifteen points clear of Aston Villa. I don’t know how they did it either. Looking at the table someone just drop two random teams on top of the traditional top six. Liverpool and Chelsea could not manage to win half of their league games. Even with Guardiola and Bielsa in charge. Pep would be sacked. Bielsa managed to hang on, even though Klopp was sacked with better results.

Two of my losses came after the league had been wrapped up and the end of season finals had become the focus (one loss against City #Nemesis). Though an early season defeat has to be shared because it was one of the most extraordinary games you can imagine in a season of extraordinary games.

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Four nil up. Five four down. The quality of the Arsenal goals was beyond belief. Santi Cazorla smashed a shot from over 30 yards that flew into the top corner. I had never seen a strike like it on FM. Then Berahino’s strike kissed in off the post. Then Mahrez did the same. It was as if the game had just decided that we were not winning this. No changes slowed them down. After 69 minutes the storm settled. Two minutes into stoppage time, just as I am thankful that I didn’t lose a game where we had a 4-0 lead, they struck. An unbelievable and truly memorable match.

The team is superbly successful. This would not be possible without the players performing to a consistently high standard. I have stripped the squad right back. There are only two non English players in the first team, Tadic and Vietto. Is the squad still too big, possibly, but the opportunities are there for the young players.

(Screen shot one is two seasons ago, screen shot two is the end of the current season)

Jack Butland

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Butland 3

In two years the improvements are tiny. He is far from being the best goalkeeper in the world. He isn’t England’s best goalkeeper. In terms of attributes, but his raw statistics in performance terms are incredibly strong.

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His average rating overall is 7.3. In 26 league games he kept 16 clean sheets. Twenty four clean sheets overall. So what do the attributes really matter?

This will be repeated over and over. Purely with the design of convincing myself that attribute chasing is not the key.

Jordan Pickford

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Pickford 3

The story is the same for Pickford. He doesn’t get anything like as many games as Butland but I make sure he gets a good number. With Pickford the aim is to keep him happy enough that he stays. I will not find a better number 2.

Walker-Peters

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Walker-Peters has reached the status of being a regular in the squad. He performs quite well and has made similar moves forward. One point a season.

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Those numbers are very strong even for system that favours wide players.

Joe Gomez

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Joe Gomez has developed into a top level defender. If he doesn’t improve a single attribute further he will still be phenomenal player.

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Calum Chambers

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Chambers is another player of high quality. In Chambers and Gomez I have two players whose attributes are at that top level of quality.

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Eric Dier 

Dier is not strictly part of the experiment, he was signed aside from all of the other players. His performance have also been to a superbly high standard, just as would be expected from a successful side.

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Ryan Bertrand

Bertrand is a Southampton original. He was not a player I was looking to develop but I have retained him. I am not sure if he is just in the way or an important player.

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Kortney Hause

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Hause 3

Hause has suffered with lack of game time. The lack of game time has come because I don’t trust his attributes. His performances have been ok, but I feel the team is weaker with Hause in it.

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His average rating disagrees with everything I just said. Almost 7.8 is superb, but that has to weighed against the fact that he rarely got a start against strong teams.

Ben Chilwell

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Chilwell 3

Ben Chilwell has spent a lot of time out on loan. I felt it was time to start playing him. Though he might have played more, when he did play he played very well. Chilwell has a future. Possibly even a present.

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Harry Maguire

Maguire has fallen behind the other players in the pecking order. He remains a good player but the development of the other central defenders has pushed him into a firm 3rd place.

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Nathaniel Chalobah

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Chalobah spent the season on loan at Aston Villa. He is 23 and has already played for 10 clubs. He has had game time but zero stability. I am not sure that I will be the one to offer it to him.

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Matthew Targett

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Targett 3

Targett’s attributes have not pushed forth in a particularly eye catching way. Left back has developed into a huge problem. I have three of them and I am not really sure who is my best one. Targett only played 15 games because of injuries this season.

Lewis Cook

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Expectations are sky high for Lewis Cook. He spent the previous season on loan at West Ham, this time he had a real battle with Ward-Prowse for the first choice central midfield position. Ward-Prowse still holds the edge for me but I am waiting for the time to come when I can’t ignore Cook.

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One goal and zero assists in 48 appearances is not yet telling me he has to be my first choice. The numbers on tackles and passes are pretty strong though.

Will Hughes

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Hughes had 22 appearances and did little of note. With Will Hughes I really want him to be good but other players are ahead of him. Hughes is another long term problem.

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Nathan Redmond

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Spot the difference? Redmond is not quite the stats vs attributes phenomena I describe as his attributes are average to decent and his stats are in the same realm.

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Five goals and thirteen assists in quite a lot of games. His average rating of 7.5 is really solid but the output isn’t quite there.

Jack Grealish

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Grealish 3

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In Jack Grealish we can see my issue. His development has been steady with the most significant growth in physical areas. He is a good but not great player according to his attributes. The productivity of 18 goals and 11 assists is very good. Grealish benefited hugely from the sales of Mane and Shaqiri. In the previous season he started 12 games with 16 appearances from the bench. This time it was a huge 41 starts. It made little difference to his rate of growth.

Dusan Tadic

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Club captain but injured. This was not a good season for Tadic. Even when he was fit he struggled to regain his place.

Sheyi Ojo

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Ojo went out on loan again. This time at Burnley who granted him 39 starts. His average rating did little to catch the eye.

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Demarai Gray

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Gray 3

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Gray was brilliant. His attributes are good but there are many players better. His season stats of 16 goals, 17 assists and 10 player of the match awards are hard to beat.

To compare.

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De Bruyne played exactly the same number of games as Gray. Scored 5 fewer goals. Created two more. Player of the match half as many times. De Bruyne’s average rating was 7.53. Demarai Gray averaged 7.78. Kevin De Bruyne’s attributes are stronger than Gray in some places significantly, but does it matter when Gray out performed him?

Jay Rodriguez

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The redemption song of Jay Rodriguez has changed it’s tune. His role changed significantly. No longer a first choice striker Rodriguez survived being sold because of his versatility. Sixty one appearances is testimony to that. A return of 12 league goals is more than useful and he scored some very important goals. Far from a star but an important part of the club.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

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Ox was not at his World Player Of The Year winning best. Injuries saw to that. As noted earlier he retained his knack for scoring important goals but his general output was down. Still only 24 he has had a career that would be the envy of many.

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Ainsley Maitland-Niles

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Maitland-Niles had 38 games at Reading on loan. His average rating of 7.14 is strong for a young player at a Premier League club who finished 17th. The potential of Maitland-Niles could contribute to the potential sale of Tadic.

James Ward-Prowse

My 23 year old vice captain (behind Tadic). He has now appeared more than 200 times for the Saints (and Southampton). His position as first choice is under threat from Lewis Cook but he continues to perform solidly. The central midfield position in my system is not a glorious one. Win it, pass it, keep things moving. Both he and Cook perform the role equally well. The big advantage that Ward-Prowse has is that he is the best set piece taker at the club.

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Joshua Onomah

Onomah 2

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Josh Onomah is a player where significant improvements have been made on his starting point. His attribute numbers are now high quality, but they are clearly not world class. Yet he performs as well in the position behind the strikers as any player I have ever had there. Coutinho and Isco have been very good all round performers in the role but Rafinha scored the most consistently from the 10 position. Onomah has shown glimpses of Rafinha’s effectiveness.

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Those numbers don’t look so great but six of those goals and half the assists came in the second half of the season when Onomah had nailed down his place. Tadic very much second choice.

Dominic Solanke

Solanke 3

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After spending time on loan I decided to give Solanke his chance in the first team. His performances were encouraging and his attributes are solid. Unlikely to be as good as Kane or Vietto but very likely to be better than Woodrow or Armstrong.

Luciano Vietto

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Vietto had a fantastic season. He was steady in the league but a bit of a specialist in the cups, with that ability to score in finals. Four in the FA Cup final will always help. I was unsure whether to sign him but I am very pleased I did. Vietto has all the attribute scores I look for in a forward. Dribbling, finishing, touch, composure, off the ball, anticipation, acceleration and pace. All are 15 or over. He doesn’t quite have the heading ability I would like but the rest more than make up for it.

Vietto

Harry Kane

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I was so pleased to sign Harry Kane, yet it was hard to know what to make of his season. He scored 22 league goals but failed to score a single European goal. His ratio ended up as less than one in two. The average rating was 7.49. There isn’t a better English striker.

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The attributes are excellent but the goal output is a little too low. So which stats really matter?

Cauley Woodrow

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Woodrow 3

Cauley Woodrow spent the season at Norwich. They clearly didn’t rate him. Despite my best efforts to convince them to give him more minutes he just could not force his way in.

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Adam Armstrong

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Armstrong 3

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Armstrong also had a season on loan. He appeared 30 times in the Premier League for Fulham, scoring only twice.

What now?

The players are quite clearly developing their attributes very slowly. Some may have hit their limit for improvement already. In terms of their output for the season they are clearly capable enough, is that sufficient development? The game is clearly not all about 20s but is it about 14s, 15s and 16s? Am I unreasonable to be looking for more from them?

Then there is off the field.

The club are developing into a real power. The stadium has been expanded, up to 48,000 with plans in place for a further 6,000 seats to be added. There are no debts and I have brought in considerable income through prize money and sales.

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The transfer budget is over £200,000,000.

If the players are not really improving as I want how long should I remain faithful? I have shown these young players can form a group capable of winning major trophies consistently. They have won major awards as individuals. And yet. The funds are there to buy the very best attributes, forget about stats.

As always a season ends and the questions emerge.

Time to answer them.

 

 

 

 

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