“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
This quote from Niels Bohr is one of my favourites of all time and will never tire of using it (nor apologise for over using it). Bohr is stating little more than the obvious, but manages to do so in such a way that we check ourselves and remember the inevitable hubris that comes with making predictions with such certainty.
The year of 2020 itself is a disturbing example of just this. Who would have predicted the summer of 2020 to have been one of lockdown and anti-racism protest around the planet? (sadly, the need for anti-racism protests were far too easy to predict).
The summer of 2017 was quite different. It was the golden summer for England football as the youth teams delivered excellent performances at international tournaments, bringing home trophies and reaching finals. Everyone sat drooling with anticipation as these future superstars were clearly set to take the Premier League and England to glory in the not too distant future.
Three years into that future and how are these individuals doing? What opportunities have they had? It was always unrealistic to expect all of them to be Premier League first team regulars, but how many have achieved that feat?
Over 80 players featured for England during that summer. One is an England regular in Jordan Pickford. One is considered one of the best young players in the world, Jadon Sancho. It has been well documented that Sancho felt he needed to move away from the Premier League to get the minutes he needed. Looking at the rest of the cohort, he would appear to have been correct. His example has inspired Jonjoe Kenny to follow him to the Bundesliga, though only on loan.
Of the cohort some have gone on to establish themselves as first team Premier League footballers. Holgate, Chilwell, Gray, Ward-Prowse, Grealish, Henderson (Dean), Cook and Calvert-Lewin. For Chilwell, Ward-Prowse and Grealish, they have entrenched themselves in their club’s starting XI.
At Chelsea the transfer ban has afforded opportunities to Abraham, Mount, James and Tomori. Abraham and Mount have been key players in the 2019/20 season (though Abraham’s position may be threatened by the arrival of Timo Werner). Reece James has recently pushed himself into the team. For Tomori selection has been inconsistent.
We then have the cases of Maitland-Niles, Ryan Sessegnon and Phil Foden. Managers seem to want to use Maitland-Niles but not sure exactly how to do so. Sessegnon was a key player at Fulham but has been unable to break into the Spurs team. Foden has been anointed as the successor to David Silva and patiently awaits his coronation, while being unable to breach 20 Premier League appearances in a season.
These players represent fewer than 25% of those who played in the summer of 2017. The others are being loaned out to lower league clubs and have hardly tasted first team football for their clubs. Worse still, two have been released and are without clubs. These players were seemingly selected as the future of English football yet over 60 of them are waiting to break through, and many of these players are over 21.
In 2017 there was a huge amount of hand clapping with regard to English football and the England DNA taking effect. Not just from within the country, but also from other federations. Yet the product of that glorious summer has not been as rich as expected.
Most fascinating is that the young English players who have risen to the top of the Premier League were uninvolved. There was no Rashford, no Trent Alexander-Arnold, no Joe Gomez, no James Maddison, no Aaron Wan-Bissaka, no Todd Cantwell and so on.
This could mean a number of things. That these “stars of the future” did not receive the minutes they need at the level they needed. Or that there remains a problem in bridging the gap between youth football and first team football. Or that these squads and tournaments are, for the majority, a poor indicator of future success for those involved. Most likely it is a mixture of all three.
As ever, no matter how good a system might be, it can always be better. It can only become better if it examined. The talent is there, the problem remains getting it to truly blossom.
Of course, all of these players still have plenty of time to blossom, just that we might have expected more of them to blossom by this point.
What will follow will be little more than snippets on each player involved during the 2017 summer. Enough for a flavour of progress. Anymore than that would likely require a full book, as England fielded four squads.
England u-21 Squad
Jordan Pickford (26)
Pickford was 23 in the summer of 2017 and already established at Premier League level. England and Everton number one.
Angus Gunn (24)
Moved from Manchester City to Southampton where he currently fights it out for the number one spot.
Jonathan Mitchell (25)
Contracted to Derby County. Has been loaned to Oxford United, Shrewsbury and Macclesfield since the 2017 tournament.
Mason Holgate (23)
Holgate has appeared 59 times in the Premier League for Everton, including 21 games during the 19/20 season.
Ben Chilwell (23)
Well established in the Leicester first team. Also 23 with 11 full England caps.
Alfie Mawson (26)
Now 26, Mawson experienced three seasons in the Premier League. Two with Swansea and one with Fulham before relegation to Championship.
Callum Chambers (25)
At the age of 25 Chambers is approaching 150 Premier League games. Yet to establish himself in the starting XI at Arsenal and has had loan spells at Middlesbrough and Fulham.
Jack Stephens (26)
Close to 80 Premier League appearances for Southampton. Well regarded and versatile squad player.
Matt Targett (24)
Moved to Aston Villa from Southampton for the 2019/20 season. So far making 16 appearances for Villa.
Rob Holding (24)
Hampered by injuries Holding has only made 33 Premier League appearances, though does appear regularly in cup competitions.
Kortney Hause (24)
Moved from Wolves to Aston Villa. Yet to make a Premier League appearance,
Dominic Iorfa (24)
Moved from Wolves to Sheffield Wednesday and is a regular in the Championship.
Nathaniel Chalobah (25)
Loaned numerous times by Chelsea (for whom he played 10 Premier League games) before being sold to Watford. In three season Chalobah is approaching 30 Premier League or the club.
Demarai Gray (23)
Regularly featuring in the match day squad for Leicester City. Gray has made 125 Premier League appearances for the club.
James Ward-Prowse (25)
The captain of this U-21 squad. He has now made over 200 Premier League appearances and won two senior England caps.
Lewis Baker (25)
Though still a Chelsea player, Baker is yet to play a league game for them. Baker has been loaned to seven clubs and is currently at Fortuna Dusseldorf, where has appeared eight times in the Bundesliga.
John Swift (24)
Made one Premier League appearance for Chelsea. Currently at Reading and a regular in the Championship.
Will Hughes (25)
Suffered a terrible injury but got his career back on track with Derby before moving to Watford. Has appeared in over 50 Premier League games.
Jack Grealish (24)
Loyal to Aston Villa (thus far) and is their main creative spark at Premier League level. Courted by other clubs according to the media.
Tammy Abraham (22)
Benefiting from Chelsea’s transfer ban, Abraham has made 25 Premier League appearances and scored 13 goals in the 19/20 season. He has also played four times for the full England team, scoring once.
Jacob Murphy (25)
Murphy has played 33 Premier League games for Newcastle but has spent most of his career on loan at various Championship and League One clubs.
Cauley Woodrow (25)
Woodrow played a handful of Premier League games for Fulham. Is now a Championship regular at Barnsley.
U-20 Squad
Freddie Woodman (23)
Yet to play in the Premier League. Has been loaned to five clubs. Is currently on loan at Swansea in the Championship.
Dean Henderson (23)
Currently on loan at Sheffield United for a second successive season. Helped the club to promotion in his first season and is Sheffield United’s first choice in the Premier League.
Luke Southwood (22)
Yet to play a first team game for his club Reading. Has been loaned to Bath, Eastleigh and Hamilton.
Jonjoe Kenny (23)
On loan at Schalke from Everton. Has played over 20 Bundesliga games in the 19/20 season to go with 30 plus Premier League games for Everton.
Callum Connolly (22)
One Premier League appearance for Everton. Loaned to six clubs in the Championship and League One.
Fikayo Tomori (22)
Another player to benefit from the Chelsea transfer ban, making 15 Premier League appearances in the 2019/20 season.
Jake Clarke-Salter (22)
One Premier League appearance for Chelsea. Loaned to four clubs, currently at Birmingham in the Championship.
Ezri Konsa (22)
Joined Aston Villa for the 19/20 season and has appeared in a dozen Premier League games.
Kyle Walker-Peters (23)
Walker-Peters appeared a dozen times in the Premier League for Spurs. He joined Southampton on loan in January 2020 but is yet to appear.
Deal Fry (22)
A regular for Middlesbrough in the Championship, with whom he has spent his entire professional career.
Lewis Cook (23)
Cook has made almost 70 times for Bournemouth in the Premier League, also earning one senior England cap.
Joshua Onomah (23)
Onomah joined Fulham for the 19/20 season and is a regular in the Championship.
Ainsley Maitland-Niles (22)
Approaching 50 Premier League games for Arsenal and 100 in all competitions. Maitland-Niles is on the verge of being considered a regular.
Kieran-Dowell (22)
Dowell has made two Premier League appearances for Everton. Currently on loan at Wigan.
Sheyi Ojo (22)
On loan at Rangers in the Scottish Premiership from Liverpool. Has made eight Premier League appearances.
Ovie Ejeria (22)
For the 2019/20 season Ejeria is on loan at Reading from Liverpool, currently appearing over 30 times. He has made two Premier League appearances for Liverpool.
Adam Armstrong (23)
Armstrong played 15 Premier League games before joining Blackburn where he is a first team regular.
Dominic Solanke (22)
Joined Liverpool from Chelsea but didn’t break into the first team with either. Joined Bournemouth and has appeared over 30 times in the Premier League without scoring.
Ademola Lookman (22)
Almost 30 Premier League appearances for Everton and 20 for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, where he has now joined permanently. Most appearances are from the bench.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (23)
The 2019/20 season has been a break through in front of goal for Calvert-Lewin with 13 goals so far. In the last three seasons he has played almost 100 first team games.
Harry Chapman (22)
Chapman moved from Middlesbrough to Blackburn in 2019/20. Yet to become a first choice on the Championship.
U-19 Squad
Aaron Ramsdale (22)
In the 2019/20 season Ramsdale has established himself as the Bournemouth number one goalkeeper.
Dujon Sterling (20)
Sterling is currently on loan at Wigan from Chelsea. He is yet to make a Premier League appearance.
Easah Suliman (22)
Currently on loan at Vitoria Guimaraes. Suliman is on loan from Aston Villa, for whom he is yet to make an appearances.
Darnell Johnson (21)
Johnson is on loan at Hibs from Leicester, he has made one SPL appearance.
Jay Dasilva (22)
Dasilva is currently on loan at Bristol City from Chelsea. He is yet to make a Premier League appearance.
Tayo Edun (22)
Edun is on loan at Lincoln City from Fulham. He is yet to establish himself as a Championship regular.
Andre Dozzell (21)
Dozzell has spent his whole career at Ipswich. He is a first team regular for the League One club.
Mason Mount (21)
After a number of loan spells Mount has broken into the first team at Chelsea this season, playing almost 30 Premier League games and scoring half a dozen goals. He has also made six appearances for England.
Isaac Buckley-Ricketts (22)
Buckley-Ricketts did not play a first team game for Manchester City before joining Peterborough. Peterborough released Buckley-Ricketts in 2019.
Ryan Sessegnon (20)
Sessegnon joined Spurs for £25 million in 2019. He has struggled to hold down a first team place having been a key player for Fulham.
Lukas Nmecha (21)
Currently on loan at Middlesbrough from Manchester City. Nmecha has made two first team appearances for City.
Nathan Trott (21)
Trott is on loan from West Ham to Wimbledon. He has been a regular in League One in the 2019/20 season.
Reece James (20)
Another player to benefit from the transfer ban at Chelsea. James has made 17 Premier League appearances this season.
Jacob Maddox (21)
Maddox is at Chelsea but is yet to make a Premier League appearance. He has joined Southampton on loan, but is yet to make an appearance.
Josh Dasilva (21)
Brentford signed Dasilva from Arsenal. He is a first team regular for the club.
Marcus Edwards (21)
Edwards has signed for Portuguese club Vitoria Guimaraes from Tottenham. he was unable to break into the first team at Tottenham but has played 17 games in the Portuguese Premier League.
Ben Brereton (21)
Nottingham Forest sold Brereton to Blackburn where he is a regular in the Championship.
U-17 Squad
Curtis Anderson (19)
Anderson joined Charlotte Independence from Manchester City. In 2019 he was released.
Josef Bursik (19)
Bursik has been loaned out by Stoke to a number of National League clubs. He is yet to play first team football for Stoke.
Billy Crellin (19)
Currently signed to Fleetwood Town but on loan at Chorley. Everton have been rumoured to be interested in buying Crellin.
Timothy Eyoma (20)
Eyoma is at Spurs but has not made an appearance.
Lewis Gibson (19)
On loan at Fleetwood from Everton. Yet to appear for Everton.
Marc Guehi (19)
On loan at Swansea from Chelsea. He has played a handful of Championship games.
Jonathan Panzo (19)
Panzo joined Monaco from Chelsea. The 19/20 season has seen him on loan at Cercle Brugge, where he has played 17 league games.
Joel Latibeaudiere (20)
Manchester City have loaned Latibeaudiere to FC Twente for the 19/20 season. He has played two Eredivisie games.
Steven Sessegnon (20)
Sessegnon has spent his whole career at Fulham, making almost a dozen first team appearances.
George McEachran (19)
Currently on loan at Cambuur from Chelsea. He has made two appearances for Cambuur.
Phil Foden (20)
Foden has made 32 Premier League appearances for Manchester City, plus a further 30 games in all competitions.
Tashan Oakley-Boothe (20)
In summer 2019 Boothe signed for Stoke from Spurs. He has made one appearance for Stoke, having made none for Spurs.
Angel Gomes (19)
Gomes has spent his whole career at Manchester United. Thus far making five Premier League appearances.
Jadon Sancho (20)
Sancho moved to Borussia Dortmund in 2017. He has gone on to make over 70 Bundesliga appearances, scoring 30 goals, as well as making 11 appearances for the senior England team.
Nya Kirby (20)
Kirby is at Crystal Palace, where he is yet to make a first team appearance.
Callum Hudson-Odoi (19)
Despite being hampered by injuries, Odoi has earned three senior England caps and played almost 30 first team games for Chelsea.
Emile Smith Rowe (19)
Smith Rowe has played twice for Arsenal in the Premier League. He has also had loan spells with RB Leipzig and Huddersfield.
Morgan Gibbs-White (20)
During the 2018/19 season Gibbs-White made 26 Premier League appearances. This season he has been held back by injury. He currently has 30 Premier League appearances.
Conor Gallagher (20)
Gallacher is yet to play a Premier League game for Chelsea. He has spent the 19/20 season on loan at Charlton and Swansea.
Rhian Brewster (20)
Liverpool snapped up Brewster from Chelsea. He has not yet made a Premier League appearance. During the 2019/20 season Brewster was loaned to Swansea, where he made 11 Championship appearances, scoring 4 goals.
Danny Loader (19)
Loader has spent his whole career at Reading, for whom he is approaching 30 Championship appearances.