The world transfer record is a strange thing.
At the moment the world’s most expensive footballer could be Cristiano Ronaldo. Or Gareth Bale. Real Madrid have been very cagey with the exact amount trying to protect Ronaldo’s ego. Exchange rates play a part too. Depending on the exact day that the money changed hands, the fee handed over for Luis Suarez could be more than both Bale and Ronaldo.
Undoubtedly these are the top three in football history. While the final circumstances of Bale and Suarez moving where different (it is hard to imagine Gareth Bale ever attempting to bite someone) the impact on the teams they have left behind has shared a similar interpretation in the media.
This is not surprising. Both Tottenham and Liverpool had enjoyed excellent seasons. Both Suarez (31) and Bale (21) top scored for their teams. Both had supplied numerous assists Suarez (12) Bale (7). Both players were seen as the talisman of their side.
The two clubs spent the money in a similar way, looking to add greater strength in depth to the squad rather than outlay on a big money marquee signing. For Spurs it did not work out, with the new signings having little impact. What happened with Spurs has coloured the judgement of Liverpool, just as Liverpool’s performance last season without Champions League Football seems to have coloured the expectations of Manchester United. In their Premier League Predictions the pundits of the BBC and Sky Sports have largely written Liverpool off, with most predicting that Liverpool will drop out of the top four to be replaced by Manchester United. Only a few believe that they will be able to remain in a Champions League qualification spot. Most expect a drop of three places from second (two points behind Manchester City) to fifth. Which sounds like a large drop but would only have required six fewer points.
For Tottenham in 2012-13 they missed out on Champions League qualification by a single point. Arsenal finished in fourth with 73 points, Tottenham with 72. After Bale Tottenham finished one place lower, sixth with 69 points. In 2012-13 their Premier League goal tally was 66 scored. Bale, you will recall scored 21 goals (or roughly 32%), so simple subtraction takes them down to 45 goals scored. In 2013-14 the tally was 55. Although they lost a player who scored 21 goals and assisted seven the deficit was 11. The points fell by three and the league position by one. The negativity surrounding the loss of Bale at Tottenham came down to the fact that the league position did not improve.
Suarez was responsible for a greater number of goals for Liverpool. His 31 goal total in 2013/14 is considerably greater than that of Bale. However, Liverpool’s goal tally was considerably greater than that of Tottenham in 2012/13. Liverpool netted on 101 occasions. Suarez contribution equals just under 31%, 1% less than that of Bale. If you subtract the 31 goals the total would be 70, which is one less than Chelsea in third and two more than Arsenal in fourth. Although it is worth noting that Chelsea were 23 goals better than Liverpool defensively and Arsenal 9 better. Should the loss of Suarez have the same statistical impact on Liverpool as the loss of Bale did on Tottenham and they are three points worse off, they finish third. If they drop one position, as Spurs did, they would finish third, confounding the pundits expectations and qualifying for the Champions League.
Of course, it can not be as simple as that. However, if people are judging where Liverpool will finish based on the similarities with Tottenham it is worth keeping in mind that Spurs did not fall quite as far or hard as many appear to think.
The question people are asking of Liverpool is, how do they replace the goals? The same question asked of Tottenham.
Spur’s Premier League top scorers 2012/13
Gareth Bale 21
Jermain Defoe 11
Clint Dempsey 7
Emmanuel Adebayor 5
Liverpool’s Premier League top scorers 2013/14
Luis Suarez 31
Daniel Sturridge 21
Steven Gerrard 13
Raheem Sterling 9
There is a stark contrast between the numbers. There were clearly more goals in the Liverpool team than the Spurs team.
The other question asked of Liverpool is have they spread the transfer money too thin? This is also based on what Spurs did with the money they received for Gareth Bale.
Spurs signings –
Paulinho
Nacer Chadli
Roberto Soldado
Etienne Capoue
Vlad Chirches
Christian Eriksen
Erik Lamela
Seven signings costing over £100 million. Of those signings only Christian Eriksen produced anything approaching the form he had shown at his previous club.
Liverpool signings –
Rickie Lambert
Adam Lallana
Emre Can
Lazar Markovic
Dejan Lovren
Divock Origi
Javier Manquillo
Also seven signings at over £100 million. Who knows how well they will perform?
There are many similarities in the players signed. Clever attacking midfielders, players designed to add greater solidity to the back line, a player to add power and strength to the centre of midfield. One difference between the two sets of signings is that more of the Liverpool buys have prior Premiership experience and therefore the experience of settling into a different country. Although, the signings of Downing, Carroll and Henderson (initially) should not have had much trouble settling. People tend to forget that a different city can be as much of unsettling factor as a different country.
The real problem for Spurs was the biggest name they signed.
Roberto Soldado. A consistent goalscorer in Spanish football. A record of one goal every two games for Valencia and Gatafe. The goals Soldado was supposed to bring should have replaced those of Bale, but his strike rate dropped to one in four and a half at Tottenham. That is not to say that he will never again score at a higher ratio, it just happens that the ratio immediately after Bale’s departure was not what Tottenham had hoped for.
Have Liverpool spread the money too thin? The question is one loaded with subtext. The real question is –
Why haven’t Liverpool spent £50 million on a 20 goal a season striker?
Who?
In La Liga three players scored over 20 league goals. Ronaldo and Messi are clearly unavailable for less money than Liverpool received for Suarez. The other player, Diego Costa was already in Chelsea’s sights.
In the Bundesliga only Robert Lewandowski passed 20 goals, although the players have fewer possible games than in other leagues. Bayern had secured his signature by January.
In Serie A Ciro Immobile top scored with 22. Dortmund swooped for him as a replacement for Lewandowski. The only other man to pass twenty was Luca Toni, now 37 years old.
In Ligue 1 only Zlatan Ibrahimovic went past 20 goals, with 26.
This would mean that Liverpool would be shopping in the realms of players with the potential to score twenty goals rather than those with proven goalscoring ability.
Why do that when they still have a player who has just scored over 20 league goals?
In the Premier League three players went past 20 league goals. Suarez was out in front with 31. Yaya Toure netted 2o from midfield. The second top scorer and top scoring Englishman was Liverpool’s Daniel Sturridge.
Sturridge’s numbers are in fact identical top those of Gareth Bale prior to joining Real Madrid. Twenty one goals. Seven assists. That could be interpreted as already having that £5o+ million player within the ranks.
Very few teams have required two twenty goal a season strikers to win the league. Most have only had one. Liverpool, will still have one.
Liverpool had an extraordinary season. No one would have expected them to get close to winning the Premier League prior to the start of the 2013/14 season. No one expects them to win the title prior to the start of the 2014/15 season. However, for people to write off their chances of finishing the top four is an over reaction. If they are only three points worse off (as Spurs were) they will probably finish in the Champions League places. If they only drop one place (as Spurs did) they will certainly qualify for the Champions League. If they only score 11 less league goals (as Spurs did) they will still score 90 times.
The Spurs comparisons seem to be guiding the pundits predictions, yet if they follow that pattern Champions League qualification should not be much of a problem. As such they do not fully address the matter.
Liverpool do not need to replace all of Suarez goals. If the new purchases only contribute 15 rather than 31 then the team output would remain good. The big proviso is at the other end.
Fifty goals conceded is too many. Was Suarez a part of that? Did the pragmatist in Brendan Rodgers sacrifice his preferred 4-3-3/4-5-1 system to maintain two forwards? Suarez and Sturridge were blasting Liverpool along. Two forwards was working, so did Rodgers stick with it, knowing that playing that open would cost them goals against? To expect Liverpool to improve in front of goal having sold Suarez is unrealistic. To expect them to improve on 50 goals against is realistic.
Anyone who expects Liverpool to make the step up without the Premier League’s top scorer (even if they still have the second top scorer) is over optimistic. Even maintaining second spot is probably going to be too much with the added expectations of Champions League football. However, to expect Liverpool to drop three places and not even put up a fight is overly negative. Undoubtedly finishing third or fourth with a good Champions League showing would represent a good season. A season that there is no real reason that they should not have.
http://www.whoscored.com/
BBC Premier League Predictions – http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28778605
Sky Sports Premier League Predictions – http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/18871/9420364/soccer-saturday-shouts-pundits-make-their-premier-league-predictions
Premier League tables – http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html?season=2012-2013&month=MAY&timelineView=date&toDate=1368918000000&tableView=CURRENT_STANDINGS